Why India Must Stay Away from Dhaka’s Internal Affairs

The fall of Sheikh Hasina on August 5 marked not just the collapse of a regime but the beginning of Bangladesh’s fight for true sovereignty. For years, the Awami League ruled with an iron fist, backed by India’s strategic interests, ensuring that Bangladesh remained subservient to New Delhi’s ambitions. When Hasina was finally overthrown by a mass uprising, her loyalists clung to a desperate hope—that Donald Trump’s return on January 20 would somehow restore their fallen leader through Indian intervention. But that illusion shattered when neither Trump nor Modi could manipulate Bangladesh’s new reality.

India, long accustomed to pulling the strings in Dhaka, suddenly found itself powerless. Modi’s last-ditch efforts to sway Washington failed, exposing India’s weakening grip on the region. With the Awami League in shambles and its influence waning, Bangladesh now faces a critical moment: it must dismantle the remnants of Indian interference and ensure that no external force can dictate its future again. The struggle is not just against a fallen party—it is against the decades-long system that allowed foreign dominance over Bangladesh’s politics. The time to break free is now.

The historic fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government on August 5, following a widespread student and public uprising, marked a turning point in Bangladesh’s political landscape. In the aftermath, leaders and supporters of the Awami League clung to the hope that the situation would deteriorate under the interim government, especially if Donald Trump assumed the presidency on January 20. Their aspirations revolved around the belief that Trump, through India’s influence, would orchestrate the downfall of the transitional government, paving the way for the Awami League’s return to power.

Such expectations were not merely speculative but openly discussed among pro-Awami League journalists at the Press Club and Reporters Unity. They eagerly anticipated Trump’s election victory, asserting that it would inevitably lead to the collapse of the interim administration. The rhetoric was so pervasive that some confidently claimed the government would not last beyond December. Social media platforms became battlegrounds for Awami League leaders and activists, many of whom celebrated Trump’s electoral success and displayed posters across Dhaka.

In exile, Sheikh Hasina reportedly directed her party members in India to stage a demonstration involving Trump’s banner—one that involved both a procession in his favor and a subsequent video showing activists trampling and tearing the banner. The intent was clear: to provoke Trump’s administration into taking action against the interim government out of perceived hostility. However, this political maneuver failed, thanks to the vigilance of students and the public, who had already dismantled the mechanisms of Awami League’s influence.

When their initial hopes were dashed post-January 20, Awami League supporters turned their attention to a potential meeting between Modi and Trump. Indian media, alongside pro-Hasina factions, eagerly anticipated that Modi would advocate on behalf of the Awami League and that Trump’s reaction would be one of outrage against Bangladesh’s interim government. While Modi did raise concerns about Bangladesh, the outcome did not align with their expectations. The Indian Prime Minister appeared visibly dejected at a press conference, failing to secure a commitment from Trump that would alter Bangladesh’s political course.

Despite this setback, Awami League supporters attempted to distort a vague remark made by Trump, claiming that he had assigned Modi the responsibility of overseeing Bangladesh’s affairs. This misinterpretation spread rapidly across social media, fueling yet another futile wave of optimism. Yet, this delusion was shattered when reality set in, and Awami League leaders in the United States found themselves reduced to chanting Modi’s name at public gatherings—a symbolic acknowledgment that the party’s influence was becoming increasingly reliant on India’s backing. A prominent Indian journalist even remarked that the Awami League had effectively become an extension of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), further cementing perceptions of its subservience to India.

India’s unwavering support for Sheikh Hasina has long been a strategic move aimed at maintaining control over Bangladesh’s internal affairs. Modi’s administration has continuously attempted to manipulate Bangladesh’s political trajectory, ensuring that Hasina remains a tool for advancing India’s regional dominance. With Hasina still alive and actively conspiring with Indian leadership, it is inevitable that further attempts to destabilize the interim government will emerge.

For Bangladesh’s political future to remain stable, any party that emerges victorious in the next national election must remain vigilant against India’s interference. Failure to do so may render the new government short-lived, potentially allowing Awami League and its allies to regain control. Such an outcome would not only undermine the independence and sovereignty of Bangladesh but also reinforce India’s grip on the nation’s political apparatus.

The most effective strategy to safeguard Bangladesh from Indian intervention is to dismantle the Awami League as a political entity. The party has functioned as India’s primary instrument for exerting influence, making it imperative to halt its organizational activities. The growing demand to designate the Awami League as a terrorist organization rather than a legitimate political party has gained significant traction. Some factions are urging the Election Commission to revoke the party’s registration, ensuring that it cannot participate in the next election under its historical symbol.

Critics may question what would happen to the party’s extensive network of leaders, activists, and supporters. The answer lies in dismantling their political structure. Without the ability to operate under the banner of the Awami League, the party’s identity would erode, leading to an eventual loss of cohesion. Moreover, if Sheikh Hasina and other senior party members face swift trials for crimes against humanity and other offenses, the party’s influence would be further marginalized. A politically disarmed Awami League would leave India without a structured proxy, forcing it to recalibrate its approach to Bangladesh.

One of the most pressing concerns is how Bangladesh can counteract India’s persistent attempts at interference. India lacks genuine allies in its immediate geopolitical sphere, with both China and Pakistan exerting immense pressure on its borders. The territorial disputes with China have resulted in the loss of significant land in Ladakh, as acknowledged by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Additionally, China has established military bases in Arunachal Pradesh and advanced its presence in the Seven Sisters region. Pakistan, meanwhile, continues to challenge India’s claims over Jammu and Kashmir, keeping the Indian military engaged on multiple fronts.

Given this geopolitical reality, Bangladesh must strengthen its alliances with nations that are adversarial to India. China presents the most viable strategic partner in countering India’s overreach. The interim government has already taken steps to condemn India’s unfair policies, but deeper economic and diplomatic ties with China would further diminish India’s leverage. Additionally, enhancing relations with Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan could help isolate India in South Asia, compelling it to adopt a more respectful stance toward Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s geographic location serves as a key leverage point. The country is now widely regarded as the “Paradise of Connectivity” due to its strategic positioning in South Asia. Nepal and Bhutan rely on Bangladesh’s seaports for trade, while India’s northeastern states (the Seven Sisters) require Bangladesh’s transit routes for efficient connectivity with mainland India. Should India attempt to assert undue influence over Bangladesh, Dhaka could restrict these routes, effectively severing India’s access to the region. Such a move would place immense logistical pressure on New Delhi, heightening internal instability within India.

Some skeptics argue that India’s military capabilities would allow it to launch an aggressive campaign against Bangladesh should diplomatic tensions escalate. However, such an assertion disregards the complexities of modern warfare. History demonstrates that successful military invasions require substantial public support within the occupied nation. If India were to engage in direct military aggression, it would face massive resistance from the Bangladeshi populace, similar to how Pakistan’s military failed to retain control in 1971 due to lack of local support.

Additionally, India’s armed forces lack comprehensive familiarity with Bangladesh’s terrain, making any potential military incursion highly precarious. Moreover, an attack on Bangladesh would necessitate the redeployment of Indian troops from its borders with China and Pakistan, leaving those regions vulnerable to hostile advances. Such a reckless maneuver would be strategically unfeasible for India, ensuring that military aggression remains an unlikely course of action.

To decisively counter India’s influence, Bangladesh must exploit India’s vulnerabilities. The government possesses valuable intelligence on India’s strategic weaknesses, and a bold leadership stance can force New Delhi to respect Bangladesh’s autonomy. Future governments must uphold this principle, ensuring that diplomatic ties with India are rooted in mutual respect rather than subservience.

Bangladesh no longer needs India’s approval to thrive; rather, India finds itself increasingly dependent on Bangladesh for regional connectivity. The global political landscape is shifting, and India’s diminishing influence was evident during Modi’s recent meeting with Trump, where his demands were largely ignored. Additionally, the United States has begun implementing trade restrictions on Indian exports while deporting illegal Indian immigrants, signaling a decline in India’s global standing.

Bangladesh now stands at a pivotal moment in its history. The days of Indian hegemony dictating Bangladesh’s political affairs must come to an end. A new era of self-reliance and strategic diplomacy must emerge, ensuring that Bangladesh remains an independent and sovereign nation free from external manipulation.