The Rise of the European Far Right: A Political Shift in the Making

A seismic political transformation is taking shape across Europe. The continent appears to be on the verge of what analysts are calling a “far-right spring,” as nationalist and populist movements experience an unprecedented surge. This ideological revival is not occurring in isolation; rather, it has been significantly influenced by the political shift in the United States, where Donald Trump has returned to the White House. His comeback has reinvigorated far-right factions in Europe, raising a pivotal question: If such a shift was possible in America, why not across the Atlantic?

This resurgence finds its roots in shared concerns between the two continents, particularly around immigration, national security, economic protectionism, and cultural identity. The momentum gained by these right-wing movements is further fueled by figures within the new American administration who have close ties to Europe’s nationalist forces. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Italian leader Giorgia Meloni, and Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-chair Alice Weidel have all received positive attention from Washington, as have French far-right figures like Eric Zemmour and European Parliament member Sarah Knafo, who were among the select few French representatives invited to Trump’s inauguration.

These ideological connections hint at a broader geopolitical realignment. Vice President J.D. Vance’s controversial remarks at the Munich Security Conference, in which he accused Europe of straying from fundamental democratic values such as press freedom, were widely interpreted as a signal of America’s evolving stance. The shift suggests a growing ideological affinity between Washington and Europe’s far-right movements, reinforcing a broader strategy that could reshape the political balance of power across the continent.

The alignment between the Trump administration and Europe’s far-right is not merely ideological—it also serves strategic purposes. Nowhere is this clearer than in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Historically, many European far-right parties have opposed international sanctions against Moscow, often expressing admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership style. Trump’s approach to foreign policy, which includes a potential deal with Russia, aligns with the interests of these nationalist movements. If the European far-right gains more influence, it would likely bolster Trump’s ability to push his geopolitical agenda with fewer obstacles from traditional Western allies.

However, this emerging relationship has raised serious concerns. Critics argue that the American administration is actively leveraging digital platforms and social media to promote right-wing candidates across Europe, mirroring accusations previously directed at Russia regarding electoral interference. Washington faces allegations of cultivating special ties with these movements in a deliberate attempt to sway European elections, echoing the Kremlin’s suspected tactics to install pro-Russian leaders in key positions.

A major milestone in this far-right resurgence occurred in Austria. In a historic election, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) secured 29 percent of the vote—its highest-ever electoral outcome—surpassing both the conservative Austrian People’s Party (26 percent) and the center-left Social Democratic Party (21 percent). While the FPÖ has previously participated in governing coalitions, its current victory marks a profound normalization of its anti-immigrant, Euroskeptic, and nationalist policies.

The FPÖ, which has roots in post-World War II Austrian nationalism, has championed hardline stances on migration, advocating for the “remigration of uninvited foreigners.” Its election platform, titled “Fortress Austria,” emphasizes the need to reclaim national sovereignty from the European Union, lift sanctions on Russia, and halt further military aid to Ukraine. Despite falling short of an outright majority, the FPÖ could still form a coalition government with the conservative ÖVP, though centrist parties may attempt to block this by forming an alternative alliance.

The European Union’s reaction to Austria’s political shift has been markedly different from its response in 2000 when the FPÖ first entered government, triggering EU-imposed sanctions. Today, with far-right parties holding positions of power in multiple European countries, such a response seems unlikely. This evolution signals a broader trend: policies once considered radical are now shaping mainstream European discourse. Calls for mass deportation of asylum seekers, stricter border enforcement, and reductions in EU influence are no longer fringe ideas but are increasingly being integrated into national policy debates.

Germany, a nation historically cautious about nationalist movements due to its past, is witnessing a striking shift. In September, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a major victory in the eastern state of Thuringia, marking the first time since World War II that a far-right party has won a state election. Similar gains were made in Brandenburg and Saxony, highlighting the party’s growing influence.

The AfD, originally founded as a Euroskeptic party in 2013, gained traction during the 2015 refugee crisis by adopting an anti-immigration platform. Over the years, it has become increasingly radicalized, leading Germany’s domestic intelligence agency to place several of its branches under official surveillance due to concerns about extremist ties. Despite this, the AfD continues to gain momentum, polling as the second-most popular party nationally.

To counterbalance the AfD’s rise, centrist parties have sought coalition partnerships with unconventional allies, including the newly formed leftist-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which paradoxically shares some of the AfD’s views on migration and Ukraine policy. The AfD’s growing support is reshaping Germany’s political landscape, eroding Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s already fragile three-party coalition and raising questions about its viability ahead of the 2025 federal elections.

As nationalist movements gain ground, the European Union itself is undergoing a rightward transformation. While centrist parties still maintain control at the EU level, their policies are increasingly reflecting far-right priorities. The migration policy overhaul passed in April 2024, which includes stricter border controls and expedited deportation processes, underscores 

this trend.

Additionally, the rightward shift is impacting EU decision-making on Ukraine. While Brussels remains committed to aiding Kyiv, growing domestic opposition from nationalist parties is complicating further military and financial support. As right-wing parties solidify their presence in national governments, their influence over European policymaking will only deepen.

Between June 6 and 9, 2024, nearly 400 million people across the European Union participated in the European Parliamentary elections to elect 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). These elections play a crucial role in determining who represents EU citizens in the European Parliament and in shaping the selection process for the next president of the European Commission, the body responsible for proposing EU policies and legislation.

Far-right political parties made gains, though not to the extent some had predicted. While significant advances were observed in Italy, France, and Germany, the overall picture across the EU is more complex. Far-right parties secured the top position in only five countries and ranked second or third in another five, largely at the expense of liberal and green parties. Although a far-right “surge” did not fully materialize, the broader trend shows growing support for anti-establishment, populist, and Eurosceptic parties at both national and EU levels. This shift is concerning, particularly as centrist parties increasingly adopt far-right rhetoric and policies, further legitimizing these groups.

The European Parliament serves as the EU’s legislative and budgetary authority, working in tandem with the European Council to pass laws based on proposals from the European Commission. It also holds the power to approve or reject the EU budget. The Parliament consists of elected representatives from EU member states, who align themselves into political groups based on ideology rather than nationality. These groups often form coalitions on a case-by-case basis when voting on legislation.

The three largest political groupings remain the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew group. However, Renew—French President Emmanuel Macron’s party—has suffered significant losses, prompting Macron to call a snap parliamentary election in France immediately after the results were announced.

Previously, the EPP and S&D collaborated to pass legislation, often with support from Renew. However, the EPP has recently moved closer to the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, creating tensions within S&D. This shift could alter the Parliament’s legislative dynamics. Meanwhile, far-right groups such as the ECR and Identity and Democracy (ID)—which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN)—have expanded their presence. Several new far-right parties that currently lack affiliation are expected to bolster these groups.

Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) enters the Parliament with 15 seats, while Hungary’s Fidesz, holding 10 seats, is seeking a new political home after its 2021 departure from the EPP. Combined, ECR, ID, AfD, and Fidesz now hold 156 seats—more than S&D. Speculation about a potential “far-right supergroup” combining ECR and ID has emerged, but internal ideological differences make this unlikely. Factional disputes are expected to continue, potentially weakening these groups’ collective influence. Renew, for instance, is considering expelling the Dutch Conservative Party due to its alliance with the far-right Freedom Party, even though this would further reduce Renew’s seat count. The far right’s ability to wield real power in Parliament will depend on their unity. Disagreements persist on critical issues such as support for Ukraine and fiscal policies. Additionally, far-right MEPs have historically had low participation in parliamentary votes, which may further limit their influence.

Although far-right parties did not perform as strongly as some expected, their steady growth at national and EU levels is evident. Far-right parties are currently part of governing coalitions in Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Italy, and Croatia. In Austria, they lead opinion polls ahead of national elections in September, while in Portugal and Slovakia, their vote share has risen significantly in recent national contests. This shift influences the workings of the European Council and the Council of Ministers—institutions where heads of government and national ministers set high-level policy and adopt EU laws. As more Eurosceptic leaders gain power, member states may push to reduce the EU’s legislative influence in favor of national sovereignty, potentially weakening the EU from within.

The European Parliament’s new composition will also be crucial in the upcoming vote for the next European Commission President. Ursula von der Leyen, seeking a second term, must secure support from Parliament if unanimously nominated by the European Council. In 2019, she won by a slim margin of nine votes, and some former backers have already indicated they will not support her again. She will likely have to negotiate with S&D and Renew for continued backing or make concessions to ECR, potentially shifting her policies further right.

Even before the elections, far-right influence over migration policy was evident. Over the past year, the EPP has adopted tougher immigration stances, aligning with far-right demands. The ID group has even claimed that their policy positions shaped recent EU Council conclusions on migration. Far-right parties have capitalized on public concerns about healthcare, housing, and living costs to fuel anti-immigration sentiment. This has pressured centrist parties to adopt similar rhetoric, particularly in response to the large influx of migrants in 2015-16.

The resulting EU policies have focused on two key areas:

1.  Outsourcing migration control: The EU has signed agreements with neighboring countries, regardless of their human rights records, to prevent migrants from reaching EU territory.

2. Securitizing migration: Migration is increasingly framed as a security threat, leading to stricter border controls and deterrence policies, including the New Pact on Migration and Asylum adopted in May 2024.

Despite the new migration pact, far-right parties are likely to argue it does not go far enough. The ECR’s manifesto calls for stronger border controls and processing asylum claims outside the EU.

During the campaign, far-right parties vowed to challenge the implementation of the European Green Deal, which aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang (VB) openly opposed it. While most Green Deal policies have already been adopted, their implementation could face obstacles. Some mainstream parties, notably the EPP, have backtracked on climate commitments to accommodate far-right views. For example, the EPP opposed the planned phase-out of combustion engine vehicles by 2035, a stance strongly supported by far-right parties. Other measures, such as the Nature Restoration Law, which mandates the restoration of degraded ecosystems, may be weakened to avoid backlash from farmer protests. The EU’s 2040 carbon reduction target is also at risk, as the ECR opposes more ambitious climate goals. With a more right-leaning Parliament, the EU’s global climate leadership may be undermined.

If re-elected, von der Leyen is expected to prioritize security, defense, and EU enlargement. The Parliament has little direct control over foreign policy but signals political stances through non-binding resolutions. Support for Ukraine remains strong, with large majorities backing military aid and trade liberalization. However, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and other populists, such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, could obstruct EU-wide consensus.

EU enlargement remains a strategic priority, particularly in response to Russia’s actions. However, rising support for far-right parties—many of which oppose expansion—could complicate the process. Public skepticism toward Ukraine’s EU accession is highest in Hungary, Slovakia, France, and Austria, where far-right influence is strong. Enlargement-related decisions in Parliament could become more contentious, particularly regarding financial assistance to candidate countries.

Far-right parties generally advocate for national sovereignty in economic matters, but their priorities differ. Some, like AfD, favor strict fiscal discipline, while others, such as Brothers of Italy, seek flexible budgetary policies. These differences could impact EU fiscal rules and economic stability. Overall, the EU faces a more fragmented political landscape, with mainstream parties struggling to maintain control amid rising far-right influence.

To understand the far-right’s continued ascendance, one must examine the socio-economic conditions fueling this shift. Many analysts trace the roots of the current wave to two major events: the 2007-08 global financial crisis and the 2015 migration crisis. The economic downturn left European societies grappling with weakened public services and rising unemployment, while the refugee influx ignited debates over national identity and security. Historically, economic instability combined with high immigration levels has created fertile ground for far-right rhetoric. Studies indicate that in periods of financial distress, voters are more inclined to support nationalist policies that blame immigrants for economic hardships. This pattern remains evident today, as inflation, energy crises, and social service cuts drive discontent among working-class Europeans.

Beyond economic anxieties, far-right parties have successfully capitalized on cultural fears, particularly around the perceived erosion of European identity. Figures such as Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France have framed immigration as an existential threat, warning of a demographic “replacement” of native populations. Such narratives, once dismissed as extremist, are now finding broader acceptance.

With nationalist parties gaining electoral ground and mainstream parties shifting rightward to retain voter support, Europe’s political landscape is undergoing a historic transformation. While coalition-building efforts may keep far-right parties out of power in the short term, their growing vote shares suggest they could soon become the dominant force on the right.

As Europe heads toward the seismic shifts, the battle between nationalist and centrist forces will intensify. The outcome will determine whether the continent embraces a more insular, protectionist future or reaffirms its commitment to multilateralism and liberal democratic values. One thing is clear: the far-right is no longer a fringe movement but a central player in the evolving political order of Europe.