Tunisia’s faltering democracy has not only exposed Saied as an authoritarian, but as one largely out of his depth—a “weak strongman,” whose aggressive consolidation of power paradoxically weakens him. His policies vacillate between populist sloganeering and economic recklessness, and his government, far from securing a stable state, seems to subsist on a stream of foreign handouts and loans. Saied’s efforts to emulate the playbook of authoritarian leaders like Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Algeria’s Abdelmadjid Tebboune have fallen flat. His election spectacle, rather than consolidating his authority, appears to have accelerated his undoing.
In a somber twist that many saw coming but few wished to acknowledge, Tunisian President Kais Saied has claimed a second term, a victory marred by an overwhelming sense of déjà vu and disappointment. Following the election on October 6, the initial forecast of Saied winning with 89 percent of the vote—an uncanny echo of Tunisia’s former dictator Zine el Abidine Ben Ali’s final triumph—gave way to an official announcement of 91 percent, cementing the regime's attempt to paint Saied as a powerful and beloved leader. Yet, as many observers noted, “if you have to rig an election to proclaim your popularity, you probably aren’t that popular to begin with.”
A former constitutional law lecturer turned autocrat, Saied’s descent into despotism is peppered with irony and contradiction. Just as Charles de Gaulle once joked about being too old to begin a career as a dictator, Saied, at 66, has seemingly committed to this path with fervor, tracing the footsteps of his predecessors with a “clumsy tyranny” that bears shades of absurdity. His presidency—once a symbol of hope—has become emblematic of Tunisia's plunge back into authoritarianism. But the question lingers: will Saied’s rule simply end with the country’s economic collapse, or will external forces intervene before the situation worsens?
The Anatomy of a Staged Election
Rather than a test of democratic will, Saied’s recent victory is a study in manufactured consent. The election saw its defining moments in everything but the result: the electoral commission bent to Saied’s will, opposition figures were systematically neutralized, and a maze of candidature rules whittled down the competition. Street protests surged ahead of election day, but the turnout fell to record lows, making it the least attended presidential election in Tunisian history.
Tunisia’s faltering democracy has not only exposed Saied as an authoritarian, but as one largely out of his depth—a “weak strongman,” whose aggressive consolidation of power paradoxically weakens him. His policies vacillate between populist sloganeering and economic recklessness, and his government, far from securing a stable state, seems to subsist on a stream of foreign handouts and loans. Saied’s efforts to emulate the playbook of authoritarian leaders like Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Algeria’s Abdelmadjid Tebboune have fallen flat. His election spectacle, rather than consolidating his authority, appears to have accelerated his undoing.
A Fragile Economy and a Failing State
Tunisia’s economic plight is perhaps the most glaring sign of Saied’s mismanagement. Under mounting debt pressure, state-owned enterprises—the lifeblood of Tunisian employment and public services—struggle to survive. For the Tunisian economy, crippled by years of mismanagement and a lack of structural reform, debt repayment has become an insurmountable burden. Without international relief, Saied has been forced to rely on domestic banks for credit, further shrinking the economy’s growth prospects and devaluing Tunisia’s currency.
As the economy teeters on the brink, Saied has countered his inability to provide economic solutions with an increasingly repressive approach to dissent. Recently, a viral video of a policeman telling protestors that they might be marching down Habib Bourguiba Avenue for the last time has come to embody the state’s response to popular discontent. The police and military have grown in influence as other institutions falter, cementing Saied’s rule as a precarious and violent experiment in one-man governance.
The Shadow of the Security State
Saied’s rise has also been underwritten by the military and security apparatus, which has quietly expanded its influence behind the scenes. Originally supportive of his power grab in 2021, Tunisia’s security forces have since taken on a more central role in governance, often filling the void left by the collapse of other state institutions. In this authoritarian turn, Saied has relied on the military, which has historically maintained a degree of independence from political interference, to shore up his authority. Meanwhile, the police, emboldened by Saied’s focus on internal security, have reasserted themselves as enforcers of the state’s will.
This shift has drawn Tunisia into a deepening partnership with the United States, which views the North African nation as a strategic ally amid growing instability in the Sahel and North Africa. American military aid, long a source of soft power in the region, has now become a crutch for Saied’s regime, keeping his security apparatus flush even as the rest of the country stagnates.
Tunisia’s Diminishing Role in the Maghreb
As Tunisia slides into authoritarianism, it increasingly draws on Algeria for support, albeit at a cost. Algeria, which has propped up Saied’s government with energy supplies and financial backing, seeks stability in Tunisia, but on terms that mimic its own heavy-handed governance style. Algiers has used the Covid-19 pandemic to consolidate a repressive order and entrench military influence in civilian affairs, and it has supported Saied in adopting similar tactics. In exchange, Saied has become something of a proxy for Algeria, championing causes that reflect Algerian interests more than Tunisia’s own national ambitions.
This symbiotic relationship has tied Tunisia to Algeria’s volatile foreign policy agenda, especially as Algeria’s tensions with Morocco escalate. Algeria has threatened intervention in Libya, perceiving a threat in the perceived Russian-Emirati-Moroccan alignment in the Sahel. These regional rivalries risk dragging Tunisia into conflicts that could further destabilize the Maghreb.
In the shadow of these power plays, Tunisia—once the beacon of the Arab Spring—is becoming a cautionary tale of authoritarianism. As Algeria’s hold strengthens, Tunisia’s political trajectory seems less a product of domestic evolution than an adaptation to regional pressures, with Saied willing to sacrifice Tunisia’s independence and stability for Algerian backing.
The Future of Saied’s “Clumsy Tyranny”
With Tunisia’s political institutions eroded, its economy shattered, and its international alliances increasingly militarized, Saied’s rule appears unsustainable. As his inner circle dwindles and his decision-making becomes more erratic, the likelihood of a more severe rupture grows. Whether Saied’s downfall will come through a military coup, an Algerian intervention, or an internal uprising remains unclear. But what is clear is that Tunisia’s systemic problems—from economic collapse to institutional decay—are being managed by a man who lacks the skills, patience, and political capital to resolve them.
In a tragic irony, Saied’s regime has gone from tragedy to farce—a grotesque parody of Tunisia’s authoritarian past. His claim to power has exposed him not as a reformer or a visionary but as an insecure autocrat, clinging to power even as it slips through his grasp. The world watches Tunisia not with admiration but with a mix of pity and concern, hoping for a resolution to the crisis that does not once again leave the region scarred by chaos. The question is no longer whether Saied will fall, but how much damage he will leave behind when he does.
Shahin Reza an... |
