South Asia’s emerging power struggle

nalysts believe that the political climate of South Asia has become unstable due to the dramatic loss of power of the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, in August this year. They believe that the politics of these regions of South Asia are now getting involved with the global system, and the phenomenon has become increasingly tensed day by day. US presence in the region in particular is indicative of a Cold War. With which India is also progressing with the same motive.

Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee to India after losing power in the student movement, which was struggling to restore democracy against the autocratic ruler Sheikh Hasina. She stayed in power for nearly 16 years, guiding Bangladesh towards her own interests and vision, without considering the shared goals of the country's general public. According to a report by Indian media NDTV, Hasina complained that she did not get enough time to leave the country. She was given a fixed time. During this period, she left the country and moved to Delhi. Hasina's claim: 'I have resigned. I refuse to witness a line of lifeless corpses.

Geopolitical shifts in South Asia

In a dramatic turn of events, Sheikh Hasina has resigned from her position as Prime Minister, citing her refusal to allow political power to be gained at the cost of student lives. She claimed that remaining in power would have required her to compromise the sovereignty of St. Martin's Island and permit American dominance in the Bay of Bengal. Her resignation speech, which included a plea to the citizens to resist fundamentalist deception, has sparked significant geopolitical debate in South Asia.

Hasina's accusations against the United States have been repeatedly dismissed by the US State Department, yet they have stirred considerable controversy. A recent report from The London School of Economics and Political Science, titled "South Asia: Navigating the New Cold War," suggests that her statements hint at a resurgence of the notion of 'foreign intervention' in regime changes within South Asia. This is not an isolated incident; similar allegations of foreign interference have surfaced during political transitions in the region, such as the 2022 ousting of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan, which was also attributed to US intelligence involvement. During the Cold War, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) played a crucial role in maintaining a degree of sovereignty and independent foreign policy for South Asian countries. Despite its flaws, NAM provided a collective identity and a platform for these nations to stand independently of superpower influence, thereby mitigating tensions and averting potential global conflicts.

Today, South Asia faces the threat of a new Cold War, with China and the United States, along with their allies, vying for influence. This geopolitical tug-of-war is pressuring regional countries to align with one of the superpowers, jeopardising their stability and harmony. The region is witnessing increasing political and economic instability, as evidenced by the turmoil in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and most recently, Bangladesh. Much like during the Cold War, powerful nations are employing strategies to overthrow unfriendly governments and install compliant leaders to safeguard their interests. These strategies have evolved to include sophisticated methods such as cyber warfare, economic sanctions, and disinformation campaigns, aiming to achieve desired political outcomes through both direct and indirect means.

China's Belt and Road Initiative and its impact on South Asia

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has significantly altered the political dynamics in South Asia. By expanding its economic influence in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, China is challenging India's traditional regional dominance. Historically, Pakistan has been a key ally of the United States in combating terrorism, especially during and after the Cold War. However, Pakistan is now a crucial participant in China's BRI, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This shift became more pronounced following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, as Pakistan sought to realign its strategic partnerships. China's strategic ambitions are also evident in Sri Lanka, where it has established a military and strategic presence at Hambantota port. The recent withdrawal of Indian troops from the Maldives and the new military agreement between Beijing and Malé have raised alarms in both India and the US. In Nepal, India's economic blockade in 2015 accelerated China's influence, filling the void left by India.

Since the end of World War II, the United States has maintained global dominance with Russia and China as its primary challengers. Currently, China poses the most significant threat to both India and the US in South Asia. In response, the US is pursuing both bilateral and multilateral strategies to bolster its influence in the region. This includes expanding naval power in the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with India, Japan, and Australia. To counter China's financial investments and infrastructure loans, often criticised as 'debt-trap' diplomacy, the US has introduced initiatives like the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in Nepal. Additionally, the US, along with the G-7, has launched the 'Blue Dot Network' and the 'Build Back Better World' (B3W) plan to challenge Beijing's growing influence in South Asia.

Challenges and opportunities for South Asian countries

In the context of intense power rivalry, less powerful South Asian countries often bear the brunt, grappling with issues like overpopulation, poverty, uneven development, and unemployment. Aligning with major blocs tends to expose these nations to war, political and social instability, and economic hardship. India's strategy of aligning with the US to counter China has proven ineffective, adversely impacting Delhi's interests. The 'neighbourhood first' policy is losing its effectiveness as neighbouring countries distance themselves from the West and its agenda, with Nepal being a prime example.

India's suspension from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for nearly a decade has led to a breakdown in communication, mutual trust, and amity among South Asian countries. In the absence of SAARC, these regions become battlegrounds for superpowers. Following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, head of the interim government in Bangladesh, has pledged to revive SAARC to enhance communication and regional cooperation among South Asian nations. He believes that South Asian countries must resist external interference in their internal affairs. Analysts suggest that India should take a historic role in leading the non-aligned movement in the region.

In conclusion, the implications of external interference in South Asia are multifaceted, affecting political stability, economic development, social cohesion, sovereignty, regional relations, and security. To navigate these challenges, South Asian countries must prioritise regional cooperation and resist external influences that compromise their autonomy. Reviving platforms like SAARC and embracing a non-aligned stance could be pivotal in fostering mutual trust, enhancing communication, and ensuring sustainable development across the region. By taking a unified approach, South Asia can better safeguard its interests and promote a more stable and prosperous future.