Sea of Discord: The Geopolitical Showdown in the Eastern Mediterranean

In February 2020, France sent its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to monitor Turkish frigates near the disputed gas fields near Cyprus. The fact that NATO allies are facing off so close to the European Union should make Europeans take notice. The conflict in Libya and the rivalry between Turkey and its Gulf counterparts now directly affect Europe's gas and territory disputes. The situation in the eastern Mediterranean is no longer a minor concern for Europe. The EU has a big stake in this, but they're not all on the same page. They want to protect Cyprus's sovereignty, secure their energy interests, and find a solution for Libya's conflict. Cyprus, Greece, and France are leading the charge against Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean. They're also teaming up with others, like the United Arab Emirates. But all this activity could create more problems for Europe, especially in their relationship with Turkey.

To tackle this, the EU and its member states should take a different approach. They need to work out a broader deal with Turkey, involving gradual agreements on key issues. Importantly, they should engage pragmatically with Ankara instead of escalating tensions. European leaders understand that a full-blown diplomatic crisis or military clash with Turkey would be disastrous, especially given the existing challenges in their eastern and southern regions. Europeans need to change their approach. They should stick to key principles like Cyprus's sovereignty but also recognise the risks of tensions with Turkey. The conflict lines in the Middle East intersect with their disputes. To make this work, Turkey must also show support by reducing drilling and naval activity in the eastern Mediterranean. Europeans can encourage this by easing recent military and political actions. It's crucial to avoid an escalating zero-sum situation and dispel the idea that Europe is teaming up against Turkey with Arab states.

Cyprus is at the heart of rising tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. For over 40 years, there has been a frozen conflict between the Turkish and Greek communities on the island. Recently, hopes were high that the discovery of significant gas reserves could lead to a settlement. Gas exports from Cyprus would also benefit the EU by diversifying energy supplies and promoting regional cooperation. However, a different dynamic has emerged, increasing tension not only between Cyprus and Turkey but also involving other regional actors. A group of countries and energy companies in the eastern Mediterranean are working together to tap into gas reserves. Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt are part of this effort, along with Italy and France. They've formed the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) in Cairo. Notably, Turkey is not part of this coalition, even though it has overlapping maritime claims and a large domestic market. The United States supports this group, despite its strained relationship with Turkey over various issues, including Turkey's purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.

Despite its initial intention to include Turkey, the EMGF has evolved into a defining coalition. People see it as an anti-Turkey club, especially since it expanded to include regional security cooperation and joint military drills near Cyprus. Greece and Cyprus want to use the gas reserves and the EMGF to boost their own political standing, even if it comes at Turkey's expense. The forum allows them to build a broader alliance against Turkish influence. Israel and Egypt also have strained relations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Meanwhile, the UAE, in its rivalry with Turkey, is drawn to the forum's anti-Turkey stance. Both Egypt and the UAE take issue with Turkey's support for Muslim Brotherhood movements in the region. In Libya, the fault line is clear: Turkey and the UAE back opposing sides in the escalating civil war. In November 2019, Ankara and the internationally recognized Libyan government formed a partnership agreement defining a maritime boundary. This agreement established an exclusive economic zone that overlaps with Greek and Cypriot interests. The goal was to prevent the proposed Eastern Mediterranean pipeline, which would supply gas from Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus to European markets. Turkey has also sought licenses for offshore drilling near Libya's coast.

Due to the maritime agreement between Turkey and the internationally recognized Libyan government, Cyprus and Greece sided with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who has French support in Libya. These divisions also extend into Syria, where both sides of the civil war employ Syrian fighters. This intertwining of conflicts in Libya and Syria provides Russia with a chance to strengthen its position in the Mediterranean.

The Turkish government often feels surrounded by hostile forces, leading to a chronic siege mentality. Despite having the longest coastline in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey faces limitations to its south and west. Concessions in this region would imply agreement with Greece on maritime disputes in the Aegean. Additionally, Turkey's failure to find gas in its local waters exacerbates its challenges. To protect the rights of Cyprus, Turkey insists on representation for Turkish Cypriots. Unlike European states, Turkey prefers allocating maritime rights based on continental shelves, which differs from the approach outlined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (to which Turkey is not a signatory). Certainly! Here's a simplified version of the paragraph: From Turkey's point of view, there are clear connections between the eastern Mediterranean coalition (represented by the EMGF) and broader regional conflicts, including the Emirati-led campaign against Turkey. Turkey believes that emerging political, economic, and security interests will inevitably challenge its position in the region. This has turned an economic competition into a life-or-death struggle. In response, Turkey escalated its actions: it increased its military presence in Libya, signed a maritime agreement with the Tripoli-based government, and dispatched naval expeditions to explore gas fields claimed by the Republic of Cyprus while chasing away research vessels operating under Republic of Cyprus licenses.

The EU's current policy towards Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean aims to softly contain' the country. In February 2020, the EU introduced new sanctions at the request of Cyprus, Greece, France, and Italy to curb Turkey's aggressive drilling expeditions. This tension escalated in May 2020 when Cyprus, France, Greece, Egypt, and the UAE jointly called on Turkey to respect sovereignty and rights in the region's maritime zones while condemning Turkey's military involvement in Libya. In response, Turkey accused these states of forming an 'alliance of evil' that could lead to regional chaos and instability. While the EU rightly defends Cyprus's sovereignty and maritime claims by not recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), its exclusionary stance towards Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean has led to tensions in Cyprus and Libya. European interests in migration and terrorism are directly threatened. The UAE's involvement in the Mediterranean theatre is also cause for concern. A confrontation with Turkey on Libya and broader Mediterranean issues could destabilize the longstanding refugee deal between Ankara and the EU. Additionally, it might weaken the EU's position on Syria if some member states re-engage with Bashar al-Assad to pressure Turkey, which maintains a military presence in northern Syria. Overall, unless tensions ease, Turkey's relationships with the US, NATO, and the EU may further deteriorate.

The EU must establish a more functional relationship with Turkey to safeguard its interests in migration, energy, and the Middle East. Instead of confrontation, the EU should engage constructively with Turkey, emphasizing shared interests in trade, energy, and regional security. While a Cyprus conflict resolution isn't necessary, acknowledging some Turkish claims related to the rights of Turkish Cypriots in the region's energy resources could be beneficial. Additionally, the EU should avoid getting involved in the destabilizing conflict between Ankara and Abu Dhabi. By taking these steps, the EU can build confidence while adhering to its core principles.

The problems in the eastern Mediterranean are complex and involve multiple layers of tension. Instead of trying to address everything at once, the EU should focus on the Cyprus conflict as a central issue. By adhering to its core principles, the EU can explore practical solutions related to gas exploitation. These technical matters are easier to handle than politically charged questions about a final resolution or maritime law. This approach could lead to progress and build confidence between the parties. European states should encourage technical-level discussions between Cyprus and Turkish Cypriots. The aim is to ensure that all Cypriots benefit from the island's gas reserves, regardless of their location (north or south). Representing Turkish Cypriots doesn't require recognising the TRNC or legitimising Turkey's military presence. Since the EU and the UN already engage with Turkish Cypriot leaders on intercommunal matters, they should include them in hydrocarbon discussions. A moratorium on gas exploration in Cyprus's exclusive economic zone could support this process, with Turkey withdrawing its drilling ships and navy from the area.

To address tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, a broader agreement with Turkey should include their access to the regional gas network, both currently and in the future. The current setup of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) exacerbates political and security issues. Given shared energy, security, and economic interests, Europe and Turkey need to find common ground. The EU could propose Turkish access to the EMGF as a starting point for a wider deal. This approach could also improve relations between Turkey and Egypt, as well as ease exploration and development tensions between the EU and Turkey.

Strengthening European cooperation with Turkey on Libya is crucial for a more effective EU approach in the eastern Mediterranean. While Turkey's agreement with the Libyan government has upset many in Europe, the current response risks isolating Europe in the region. Recognising Turkey's pivotal role is essential for any resolution to the conflict in Libya. Europeans should encourage Turkey to participate in negotiations while offering incentives. At the same time, they should make similar requests to Haftar's external supporters, who share significant responsibility for the recent escalation in Libya. The EU should use its naval assets, as well as the recent gains made by Tripoli's Turkish-backed forces, to urge the UAE to agree to a ceasefire and engage in meaningful political discussions. Europe should express frustration not only with Ankara but also with Abu Dhabi for escalating the regional conflict. This approach would demonstrate to Turkey that the EU is not unfairly targeting it. A balanced European strategy towards Libya, including impartial monitoring of arms embargo violations, would help convince Turkey that the southern Mediterranean isn't becoming an arena to exclude its influence. This effort would also receive support from progress in broader maritime talks, given Turkey's concerns about potential squeeze-outs by other Mediterranean actors.

The EU can address escalating tensions in the eastern Mediterranean by adopting a comprehensive approach that acknowledges and reconciles the intricate connections in the region. Leveraging its capacity, the EU can ensure that broader agreements prevent setbacks elsewhere. Ultimately, this approach aims to capitalise on shared interests and interconnected issues, creating a mutually beneficial path towards stability. While a single, all-encompassing deal may not be feasible due to the depth of the problems, Europeans can piece together smaller, self-contained agreements as they work towards a 'new bargain' with Turkey. Given the risks posed by instability in the eastern Mediterranean for EU interests such as migration, counter-terrorism, energy security, and sovereignty, European countries that are not directly involved in the conflicts should work to improve their relationship with Turkey. Germany, for instance, has expressed its willingness to support the political process in Libya. Berlin has already provided a neutral platform for all states to discuss core principles. However, a lack of European consensus on broader eastern Mediterranean issues and relations with Turkey has hindered progress. Most recently, Turkey pressured Malta to withdraw its support from the EU's Mediterranean mission, Operation IRINI. Unfortunately, Europe's lack of unity undermines its efforts to be a relevant actor, leaving room for other players like Russia to step in.