Neighbours in disarray under Modi's foreign policy

This gesture underscored his 'neighbourhood first' foreign policy, which sought to cultivate amicable relations and economic integration with India's smaller neighbors. However, this policy soon faltered due to border disputes, bilateral disagreements, India's sluggishness in implementing development projects, and the increasing influence of China in the region. The neighbourhood policy was also bolstered to counter China in the region. This was one of the main reasons for their desire to support a government that would allow them to implement their rules.

Apart from all these setbacks and due to the relations of Bangladesh with India, Bangladesh emerged as a notable success under this policy due to its relations with India. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who governed for 15 uninterrupted years before stepping down amid a student uprising last August 5, 2024, maintained a close working relationship with Modi. Initially, Hasina's leadership was marked by democratic principles, but over time, it evolved into authoritarianism. The growing discontent among the populace culminated in student protests against the government job quota system. The government's harsh crackdown on these protests sparked nationwide unrest, ultimately leading to Hasina fleeing the country on August 5. She is currently residing in India, which sparked another uncertainty with the relations with India and Bangladesh.

Shekh Hasina has been in power for the last 15 years, making her the longest-serving prime minister of Bangladesh. Although Hasina's popularity in Bangladesh was waning, her resignation significantly impacted India's political and security landscape. Throughout her tenure, India extended unwavering support to Hasina, often sidelining the concerns of other stakeholders and the Bangladeshi populace.

This is not news that Bangladesh’s government always tried to maintain healthy relations with India. Prior to Modi's arrival as prime minister, Bangladesh's leaders consistently attempted to foster friendly ties with India, with the Congress serving as a prime example. Under Modi's leadership, New Delhi has pursued similar policies with its smaller neighbours, occasionally leading to adverse outcomes. We cannot solely attribute India's diplomatic missteps with its neighbours to external factors; internal political dynamics play a crucial role. By emphasising Modi's strongman image, New Delhi has eroded India's liberal appeal among South Asians. Modi's alignment with administrations like Hasin's driven by corporate interests has cast doubt on New Delhi's intentions.

Since the beginning of Modi’s tenure as an Indian prime minister, the Hindu nationalist agenda has reached new heights. The Hindu nationalist agenda of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has significantly undermined India's regional interests, particularly in Bangladesh. The 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which grants Indian citizenship to persecuted minorities from neighbouring countries while excluding Muslims, has incited considerable backlash among the Bangladeshi populace. Internationally, Modi has faced criticism for the BJP's treatment of Muslims within India. Violent protests marred his 2021 visit to Bangladesh. Although Hasina's resignation presents a potential opportunity for the Indian government, it remains uncertain whether this will prompt a policy shift. India's damaged reputation in Bangladesh is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of failures in South Asia. The pursuit of a true Hindu Rashtra could be catastrophic for both India and the region.

India's relationship with Sheikh Hasina is deeply rooted. Following the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in a 1975 military coup, Hasina and her sister sought refuge in India. She stayed there from 1975 to 1981. She returned to Bangladesh to champion democracy, serving as Prime Minister from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 onward. Since 2014, Hasina has increasingly adopted authoritarian measures, targeting political adversaries, journalists, and human rights activists. Her secular party, the Awami League, has effectively restrained radical Islamic factions. Hasina has also prevented anti-India groups from establishing bases in Bangladesh. India has consistently supported Hasina, arguing that her loss of power would turn Bangladesh into a haven for Islamist groups threatening India's national security. This is one of the reasons India has consistently supported Sheikh Hasina.

Under Sheikh Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh has experienced significant economic growth, with her consolidating control over all state institutions, including the military. Consequently, India presumed Hasina's continued governance despite rising protests. However, a diplomatic setback occurred when security forces demanded Hasina's departure from Bangladesh last July, leaving her without asylum from any Western government and seeking refuge in New Delhi. India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, extended a welcome to her. This scenario underscores India's hyper-security approach to regional diplomacy, epitomised by its unwavering support for Hasina. This approach has led India to dominate regional dynamics, often disregarding historical, cultural, ethnic, geographical, and economic ties across South Asia. New Delhi's failure to build trust with its neighbours has fostered insecurity in these nations, alienating India from the broader public sentiments and weakening its relations with political adversaries, thereby contributing to democratic regression. The support for Bangladesh was such a controversial stance that the people of Bangladesh did not view it positively.

Myanmar could be another example of how the scenarios between India and Myanmar changed over time. In 2021, India aligned with Myanmar's military junta following a coup, distancing itself from pro-democracy protesters. Similarly, in Afghanistan, India has cultivated friendly relations with the Taliban, overlooking its longstanding ties with the Afghan populace. This security-focused strategy is also evident in India's conduct along the Indo-Bangladesh border, where allegations of harsh treatment by Indian border guards have surfaced.

The BJP viewed Bangladesh as a strong ally in South Asia. Modi's assertive political stance has significantly shaped India's regional diplomacy. Despite his silence on China's incursions along the contested India-China border, his reputation among India's smaller neighbours has suffered. In 2015, India conducted a cross-border operation targeting insurgent camps in Myanmar. That same year, India enforced a trade embargo on Nepal, a fellow secular republic. More recently, Modi's supporters initiated a boycott campaign against the Maldives after some Maldivian ministers criticised him. The South Asian dynamics changed over the course of time when India dominantly tried to see the ally as their puppet state and they constantly backing a government where their rules could be used as a strong viewpoint and they could selfishly benefit from their relations with the neighbouring countries in South Asia.

The resentment and strike didn't begin overnight. As the Bangladeshi people became aware of India's attempts to establish colonial rule in Bangladesh, their position gradually shifted. The transition from the agreements to the state-based rule in Bangladesh disturbed Bangladeshi citizens and altered their perspectives and thoughts about India. In Bangladesh, there is widespread resentment towards the harsh treatment by Indian border police and New Delhi's policies on water distribution, transit facilities, and trade. This discontent is believed to have reached Prime Minister Hasina. Critics of Modi accuse him of favouring firms close to him, particularly those owned by billionaire Gautam Adani. This perceived favouritism has not gone unnoticed by India's neighbours. Last year, the Adani Group announced it would supply all of Bangladesh's electricity needs through its power plants, a move that has drawn criticism due to the high costs associated with the project.

Several experts express concern about Sheikh Hasina's support from the Indian government. According to experts, Sheikh Hasina needs Modi's political support to establish her political legitimacy. In terms of securing political power for indefinite times and securing her prime ministership, Sheikh Hasina needs Modi. Pluralism, authoritarianism, and cronyism have contributed to India's problems in Bangladesh, but the Modi government's pursuit of Hindu nationalist ideals has proven more damaging. The 2019 CAA Act has finally worked towards creating a true Hindu state. Though the constitution stated that India is a secular state, Modi’s supreme power as a prime minister challenged his country as a Hindu state. Hindus from Bangladesh were among the oppressed communities that applied for Indian citizenship. This has led to the development of an anti-Indian attitude within Bangladesh. Adverse comments about Bangladeshis have surfaced from top BJP leaders. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah (Modi's de facto right-hand man) has called Bangladeshi immigrants’ termites, illegal infiltrators, and a threat to national security.

CAA downplayed a bigger picture of India’s desire to make India a Hindu state. Before the CAA, India's justice department ordered a strict survey to register legal citizens and identify Bangladeshi migrants in the border state of Assam—which critics see as a way to target undocumented Indian Muslims. Despite Amit Shah's promise, the National Register of Citizens (NRC) remains unimplemented nationwide. However, New Delhi has termed the NRC an internal issue. However, Bangladesh believes that the NRC is at the core of India's 'illegal foreigner' issue. Many analysts feared that the CAA and NRC could push millions of Indian Muslims to Bangladesh. Still, India backed Sheikh Hasina, and Sheikh Hasina was solely responsible for allowing India to enter her country and establishing a state where India would have the freedom to do as it pleased.

We can recall numerous other incidents. The perception of the Hasina administration as subservient to New Delhi grew. In 2022, a BJP spokesperson's derogatory comment about the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) incited widespread outrage across many Muslim-majority nations. However, the Hasina government downplayed the incident, labelling it an 'internal issue.' This stance led to growing discontent in Bangladesh, exacerbated by the BJP's escalating discriminatory policies against Indian Muslims, which have fuelled further outrage. Modi's anti-Muslim rhetoric has been a notable feature of India's current election campaign. Additionally, Modi's inauguration of a new parliament building last year, adorned with a mural of 'Akhand Bharat' ("Unbroken India") encompassing India's smaller neighbours, has not gone unnoticed.

During his Independence Day address on August 15, Modi urged India's 1.4 billion citizens to be vigilant about the safety of Hindus in Bangladesh. This narrative subtly redefined India as a Hindu state rather than a multi-religious and multilingual nation. The BJP's reluctance to denounce its right-wing supporters and the media for disseminating false information about the killing of Hindus in Bangladesh amid recent unrest is telling. Critics argue that Modi's government is increasingly incapable of introspection. Instead of attributing the turmoil following Hasina's resignation to Pakistan, China, or Islamist factions, India should support the citizens of its neighbouring countries who oppose authoritarianism and strive for democracy. While India is often viewed as an emerging power, its neighbours perceive it as relatively weak. Given the geographical necessity for smaller neighbours to engage with India, New Delhi should consider forging new agreements. India should prioritise considering their ally as a friendly gesture, not for the purpose of establishing rules and laws but rather for the purpose of building and fostering relationships that align with each other's interests.