Growing Taliban-India Closeness: Should Pakistan be Worried?

The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is witnessing an unsettling shift: the growing proximity between the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and India. For decades, Afghanistan has been a crucial player in the security calculus of both Pakistan and India, but the recent overtures between New Delhi and Kabul under the Taliban’s rule mark a new and potentially destabilizing development. Given the long-standing tensions between Pakistan and India, this evolving relationship poses a strategic challenge for Islamabad. Pakistan’s concerns are not unfounded; a strengthened India-Taliban nexus could undercut Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan, exacerbate security threats along its western border, and reshape the regional power dynamics to Pakistan’s disadvantage.

Historically, India has been a staunch opponent of the Taliban, favoring the erstwhile Afghan governments that were closely aligned with Western interests. However, following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021, India has recalibrated its policy. From hosting Taliban delegations in New Delhi to reopening its embassy in Kabul, India’s strategic maneuvering reflects an attempt to establish a foothold in Afghanistan. This pivot is not merely a diplomatic necessity but a calculated effort to counter Pakistan’s influence in the region.

Several reports suggest that Indian officials have been engaging with the Taliban leadership on economic, security, and infrastructural fronts. India has also continued its investment in Afghan infrastructure, ensuring that its past contributions—such as the Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament building—remain relevant. More significantly, there are murmurs of behind-the-scenes intelligence cooperation between India and the Taliban, which could have serious ramifications for Pakistan’s national security.

Pakistan has historically held significant sway in Afghan affairs, owing to its longstanding ties with the Taliban. However, the emerging India-Taliban relationship could diminish Pakistan’s strategic leverage. The Taliban’s refusal to recognize the Durand Line as an official border, its reluctance to crack down on anti-Pakistan militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and its increasing engagement with India all point toward a shifting paradigm.

Islamabad has made several overtures to the Taliban leadership, urging them to curb the activities of TTP operatives who have found sanctuary in Afghanistan. However, with India’s growing involvement, Pakistan’s security concerns are mounting. The Taliban’s lukewarm response to Pakistan’s demands suggests that it is seeking to diversify its foreign relations, and India appears to be a willing partner in this equation.

One of the most pressing concerns for Pakistan is the resurgence of TTP attacks originating from Afghanistan. Islamabad has long accused hostile intelligence agencies, particularly India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), of using Afghan territory to foment instability within Pakistan. With India now establishing deeper ties with the Taliban, there is a genuine fear that New Delhi could exploit this relationship to further its strategic objectives against Pakistan.

Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies have repeatedly raised alarms about the increasing frequency of cross-border incursions by militant groups. If the Taliban leadership, under India’s persuasion, turns a blind eye to these activities or, worse, facilitates them, Pakistan could face a renewed wave of terrorism on its western frontier. Such a scenario would stretch Pakistan’s security resources, already engaged in countering Indian aggression along the eastern border.

Beyond security concerns, Pakistan must also be wary of India’s soft power initiatives in Afghanistan. India has been leveraging its economic strength to solidify its position in the region. Despite the Taliban’s initial reservations, Indian humanitarian aid and infrastructure projects have continued, reflecting New Delhi’s long-term commitment to Afghanistan.

By investing in trade routes and connectivity projects, India aims to bypass Pakistan and establish direct access to Central Asia. The development of the Chabahar Port in Iran, for instance, is a strategic move that allows India to engage with Afghanistan without relying on Pakistan’s transit routes. If India succeeds in establishing itself as a key economic partner for Afghanistan, it could further isolate Pakistan from regional trade networks, undermining its economic prospects.

Pakistan has traditionally been concerned about facing a two-front situation—Indian aggression on its eastern border and instability on its western flank. The deepening India-Taliban ties could exacerbate this predicament. With New Delhi seeking to entrench its influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s security apparatus may find itself stretched thin, having to counter multiple threats simultaneously.

Furthermore, this evolving alliance could embolden India to adopt a more aggressive posture against Pakistan. New Delhi’s strategic calculus might involve leveraging its Afghan connections to create pressure points for Islamabad, either through diplomatic maneuvering or indirect support for anti-Pakistan elements.

Pakistan’s long-standing bet on the Taliban as a friendly force is backfiring. The Taliban’s outreach to India, coupled with its cold approach toward Pakistan, has left Islamabad in an increasingly vulnerable position.

In contrast, India’s engagement with the Taliban enhances its regional standing. If India manages to normalize its relations with the Taliban while Pakistan continues to struggle with Afghan hostility, Islamabad risks diplomatic isolation. Additionally, the Taliban’s unpredictability makes it difficult for Pakistan to formulate a coherent policy toward Afghanistan.

Given the gravity of the situation, Pakistan cannot afford to remain passive. A multi-pronged strategy is required to counter the growing India-Taliban nexus:

1. Reaffirm Strategic Ties with the Taliban: Pakistan must engage the Taliban diplomatically to ensure that its security concerns, particularly regarding the TTP, are addressed. Offering economic and infrastructural support could incentivize the Taliban to prioritize Pakistan’s interests over India’s.

2. Strengthen Border Security: Islamabad must enhance its border security mechanisms, including fencing the Durand Line and deploying advanced surveillance technology to curb cross-border militant infiltration.

3. Engage Regional Players: Pakistan should coordinate with other regional stakeholders, such as China, Iran, and Russia, to counterbalance India’s influence in Afghanistan. A collective regional strategy could prevent unilateral Indian gains in Afghanistan.

4. Expose India’s Covert Operations: Pakistan must utilize diplomatic channels and international platforms to highlight India’s destabilizing role in Afghanistan. Evidence of India’s intelligence operations supporting anti-Pakistan elements should be brought to global attention.

5. Economic Countermeasures: Pakistan should enhance its trade and investment initiatives in Afghanistan to counter India’s economic influence. Strengthening transit trade agreements and investing in Afghan infrastructure could secure Pakistan’s position as Afghanistan’s primary partner.

The growing closeness between the Taliban and India is a cause for serious concern for Pakistan. This relationship not only undermines Pakistan’s strategic depth in Afghanistan but also poses direct security and economic challenges. If left unchecked, India’s increasing influence in Kabul could be exploited to fuel instability in Pakistan, further exacerbating regional tensions.

Pakistan must act decisively to safeguard its interests. Strengthening diplomatic ties with the Taliban, enhancing security measures, engaging regional players, and countering India’s influence through strategic economic and diplomatic initiatives are imperative. The stakes are high, and Islamabad cannot afford to be complacent. The coming years will determine whether Pakistan can successfully navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape or whether India’s inroads into Afghanistan will alter the balance of power in South Asia to Pakistan’s detriment.