2025: A year of crucial ballots and unfolding political dramas

The world will witness several critical elections in 2025, though not as numerically robust as the whirlwind electoral season of 2024. Countries home to half of humanity cast their votes last year, leaving a distinct mark on global politics. Yet, the stakes in 2025 remain high, with several nations preparing for transformative elections. From the economic anxieties of inflation and geopolitical tensions to the global rise of populist ideologies, the themes shaping these elections resonate across borders.

Experts anticipate pivotal contests in Germany, the Philippines, Canada, and Chile. While predictions often lead astray, the importance of understanding the underlying stakes and evolving dynamics cannot be overstated. It now remains to see the narratives emerging from these nations, each facing its unique crossroads.

The collapse of Germany’s coalition government has set the stage for an election much earlier than anticipated, now scheduled for February 23, 2025. Initially expected in late 2025, the political turbulence reached a tipping point when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner in November. Lindner’s Free Democratic Party (FDP) exited the coalition, leaving Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens without a parliamentary majority. Losing a confidence vote in December cemented the need for snap elections.

This unexpected turn comes during a challenging era for Germany. The war in Ukraine continues to strain Germany’s diplomatic and economic position in Europe. Meanwhile, the nation grapples with industrial competition from China and the looming specter of Donald Trump, whose potential trade war could further destabilize Germany’s fragile economy.

Economically, Germany faces its second year of recession since the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting deeper structural woes. The domestic political debate revolves around pressing issues such as migration and the challenge of increasing domestic investment. However, Germany’s “debt brake,” a constitutional requirement to maintain a balanced budget, complicates any potential fiscal expansion.

Polls paint a grim picture for Scholz, whose approval ratings are among the lowest for a chancellor in recent memory. The SPD trails behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Christian Social Union (CSU) sister party, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) challenging the SPD for second place. The CDU’s Friedrich Merz is the likely frontrunner to succeed Scholz. However, building a stable governing coalition could prove to be an intricate puzzle in Germany’s fragmented political landscape.

Since the fall of the Marcos dictatorship in 1986, Philippine presidents have served single six-year terms. However, midterm elections remain a vital political barometer. The May 2025 senatorial elections will determine the fate of 12 out of 24 Senate seats, offering insight into the balance of power in the nation.

In practice, these elections often serve as a referendum on the sitting president. However, they are also a testament to the incumbent’s influence over political machinery. Current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is poised to showcase his dominance, with surveys suggesting his chosen candidates could secure as many as nine or ten of the open Senate seats.

Yet, Marcos faces a significant internal challenge from Vice President Sara Duterte. Once a political ally, Duterte’s relationship with Marcos soured as succession planning for the 2028 presidential race became evident.

Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, faces potential impeachment over alleged mismanagement of confidential funds. A Marcos-controlled Senate would likely push for her conviction, removing her from office and barring her from a 2028 presidential bid.

For Marcos, this election is not just about cementing power but also about neutralizing a political adversary. In a nation accustomed to choosing between lesser evils, the potential dismantling of the Duterte dynasty could mark a significant shift. However, this dynamic underscores the fragility of democratic institutions in a country where political rivalries often overshadow broader governance.

Canada’s next federal election is constitutionally mandated for October 2025, but political watchers anticipate an earlier vote. Recently resigned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, already vulnerable in the polls, has been shaken by internal and external pressures. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, which positioned his party for Canada as a place of uncertainty and hope for a better future for the country’s people, has been shaken.

The December 2024 resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland exposed fractures within Trudeau’s government, while U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s rhetoric added external strain. Trump’s threats of a 25% tariff and criticisms of Canada’s trade practices have compounded Trudeau’s challenges. Domestically, Canadians are grappling with high inflation and economic discontent, fueling opposition momentum.

The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, appears poised to capitalize on these frustrations. Poilievre’s platform emphasizes a return to traditional energy policies, particularly harnessing Canada’s fossil fuel wealth, in stark contrast to Trudeau’s climate agenda. For many Canadians, the upcoming election represents a deeper question about national identity. Will the country double down on progressive policies, or will it shift toward a more populist, conservative path?

While the fate of Trudeau’s leadership fell into a big hole. Increasingly, critics within his party are questioning another leader to lead them to victory. The possibility of a coalition government further complicates the landscape, potentially resulting in a muddled compromise that satisfies no one. The stakes are high for a nation often seen as a beacon of stability amid global turmoil.

Chile’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for November 16, 2025, comes at a time of cautious optimism. The Broad Front coalition, led by President Gabriel Boric, has struggled to deliver its ambitious agenda due to a lack of parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, Chile remains stuck in a constitutional impasse, having rejected two proposed constitutional texts—one too progressive, the other too conservative.

Boric, Chile’s youngest-ever president at 35, will not seek re-election due to constitutional term limits. His tenure has been marked by significant challenges, from the 2019 social unrest to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, Chile has managed to regain some political and economic stability in recent years. Foreign investment has risen, even as crime becomes a growing concern for voters.

As Chile looks to the future, the opposition’s Chile Vamos coalition appears well-positioned for victory. Evelyn Matthei, a former mayor and presidential candidate, leads the pack. However, the ruling coalition has shown resilience, outperforming expectations in the 2024 local elections. The battle for Chile’s presidency remains far from decided.

With key figures like Michelle Bachelet and Tomás Vodanovic opting out of the race, the ruling coalition must identify a strong contender. The outcome will shape Chile’s trajectory, determining whether the country leans into its progressive aspirations or returns to more conservative governance.

While these elections occur in different corners of the world, they share common threads: economic uncertainty, populist rhetoric, and the enduring fallout of global crises. From Germany’s struggle with coalition politics to the Philippines’ dynastic rivalries, Canada’s identity debate, and Chile’s quest for stability, each story reflects a world grappling with profound change.

As voters head to the polls, these elections will serve as litmus tests for the resilience of democratic institutions and the adaptability of nations in an era defined by disruption. While the outcomes remain uncertain, one thing is clear: the political landscape of 2025 will shape the future in ways that are both predictable and profoundly unexpected.