Historic Iran Nuclear Deal What’s to come for Middle East and US?
Iran’s desire to obtain nuclear weapon is not matter of being great or regional power rather it is a historical and strategic need and demand for Iran. Because Iran is one of the worst sufferers of WMD (Weapon of Mass Destruction) in the World. Iran from the pre-historical period is an affluent country with natural beauties, resources, powerful leaders and intellectual powers like philosophy, literature, architecture etc. and had also a great fame and reputation over the world especially in India for its various contributions. But Iran in 1979 first time became eyesore to Western countries though United States (US) had a strong tie with Reza Shah Pahlavi govt. The year of 1979 is very important for the whole world as it changed world ideologies and affairs like French Revolution, American Independence etc. with Islamization Iran known as “Islamic Revolution”. This revolution was done to dethrone president Pahlavi who was too much pro US. As a Shia Muslim country Iran was less valued and respected by other Sunni Muslim majority neighbors. After Islamic revolution with these neighbors US and other its allies became irritated to Iran and tried to eradicate new govt. and Islamic policies. But most of their evil plans and deeds bear no fruit. Than US incited Iran’s neighboring Sunni states to continue their attacks against Iran. The then Iraqi president Saddam Hussein got inspired by US vindications to hit upon Iran and started his mission. There were 2 reasons of Saddam Hussein’s special attack to Iran. The 1st reason is Saddam was a Sunni and Sunni is minority in Iraq. So he thought that if another Shia revolution engendered in Iraq, he might ousted from power. Another reason is that Saddam wanted to prove him as more powerful state leader than any other Middle East states. He started his brutal assault on Iran in early 1980s and continued about 10 years. Within this attacking period he used various WMD and other radiological and chemical weapons against Iran sometimes with the help of US. On the other hand being isolated abruptly Iran got no help from others. Its people cried and demonstrated with placard, festoons or human chain for humanitarian help from democratic and human rights protecting states of West Europe and US or Canada. But they were deaf, dumb and blind to Iran and Iran’s miseries was beggar description. Facing such a horrible attacks and realizing double standard of so called democratic and human rights respecting states Iran decided to gain nuclear weapon for its own safety. Than it started its mission covertly for achieving nuclear power in early 1990s with economic stability and little mentionable technical help from North Korea and China. At present every condition of Iran is not good for its survival. A tiny territorial land Israel has been threatening to invade Iran any time. So, acquiring nuclear weapon is an exigent for enduring its own entity.
Iran in 2003 publicly told about its nuclear plan and activities claiming it as for peaceful manner and technological usage by the then president Mohammad Khatami. Hearing this western states and United Nations (UN) started to throw shaft and imposed trade and economic blockade against Iran so that Iran could not gain nuclear weapons. But Khatami’s successor audacious president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not menaced and continued his country’s mission very boldly. Than US and European Union tightened their blockade and forfeited money, checks, resources and aids of Iran in World Bank, International Monetary Fund and in different parts of the world but failed to dissuade Iran from its mission. US as a permanent member of United Nations Security Council and other 3 European powers (Germany, France and England) tried to arrange negotiation with Iran in 2003-05 which later known and acted as P5+1’s process to make negotiations with Iran to persuade it for waiving its nuclear power mission using bait of financial help, withdrawing confinement and giving back of its frozen money. But their lopsided negotiation process only seeing the interest of Israel was not supported by president Ahmadinejad who had a strong Islamic insight. Besides he was so chivalrous that he was reluctant to negotiate with cunning and fraud US.
The significance of Iran has been continuing from ancient period which increased in 1970s when huge natural resource, minerals, oil and petroleum sources discovered in Iran. Hormuz Straight has added a new dimension to Iran’s strategic importance. Realizing Iran’s geographical significance and its strong interdependent trade relations with Russia, China and India, worlds most momentum oil consumers US and EU have tried several times for negotiations over the nuclear issue though they continued blockade. USA and its allies totally failed to Ahamadinejad although he had to face fiscal problem and currency fall troubles for trade blockade and frozen money. In 2013 when Hassan Rouhani, a more moderate politician, was elected as Iranian president US with alias P5+1 found weal for negotiation with Iran under the banner of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) showing their mentality for nuclear free weapon world and non-proliferation. On March 2013 secretly US inaugurated interlocution with Iranian top level officials. Than on September 2013 straightly Barak Obama made a phone call to Hassan Rouhani which was first highest level communication of the two countries after 1979. So from the Iranian side president Rouhani also showed flexibility to the loftiness of Obama to negotiate with P5+1 in November 2013 for alleviating state’s monetary problems and upgrade Iran’s image. But he tactically proclaimed for negotiation about the nuclear matter not for sacrificing Iran’s long cherished desire. However to save own image for dissuading Iran US acceded to countermand blockade over Iran in little manner and Iran also limited its nuclear programme. After 2 years long bargaining and drama on 14th July, 2015 Iran and P5+1 finally got along for the historical nuclear treaty which was later ratified in UN and EU. The chief carta of the agreement is of 100 pages where key issues are (1) Iran have to facilitate UN observers to visit and inspect its military spots but it can challenge also(2) Uranium stock of Iran will be curtailed to 300 kilogram (3) If Iran denies any rule new blockade must be inflicted on it within 65 days (4) UN embargo regarding arms and missiles will be sustained for 5 years and 8 years (5) About $100-$150 billion confiscated wealth and money of Iran will be unshackled (6) Iran can’t research for improved centrifuge within 10 years of the treaty and (7) but after 10 years Uranium reduction activities will be ended and it can sustain nuclear deeds applying modern technology and science. Going through the main topics of the treaty it is clear that it goes positively to Iran which miffed Israel and other gulf states.
Though the historical nuclear pact was made by P5+1 and Iran, it will have direct impact on US and Middle East. But EU will also feel little bit impact if any breach may happen by Iran. Israel has expressed its vexation against this treaty because it will facilitate Iran to be nuclear powerful state. Besides republicans of US is also displeased with Obama administration and find it as a great blunder. They arranged a heartburning at US congress through inviting Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu for special speech without taking any permission or consent from President Barak Obama. Netanyahu animadverted to P5+1 and termed the agreement as historical mistake expressing concern for the security of Israel. It is an open secret that Jewish multinational corporations have provided remarkable pecuniary expenditures for US election and for that reason Jewish and Israel issues remain always salient to US politicians. Now Israel is so pother by Obama that it will negatively impact to democrats on 2016’s US presidential election. On the other hand republicans may find the issue to pinch republicans repeatedly in various dialogues.
The Middle East states particularly gulf states were always tried to persuade USA for invading Iran since 1979. Now they are in the condition of seeing mustard flowers in their eyes. They got hopeless for having less binding and stringent rules to Iran in the agreement. Although actually this treaty is around 75% on behalf of the Iran and has less hard and fast provisions for it, there are mixing feasibilities for the future of Middle East. If everything goes well, Iran may achieve nuclear weapon after 10 years when the limit of the treaty will be expired. Than Iran may be arrogant to its neighbors who are always busy to do evil deeds against it. But it will spoil regional balance with adding new form of agitation and poses arms race in the region from one side and lead Saudi Arabia to have nuclear weapon also. Being a shia majority state Iran is a vocal advocate of the rights and amenities of shia in other states where shia are minority or assaulted by states. Sometimes it provokes incitements within various states through logistical support to shia such as Syria, Yemen etc. This treaty will enable Iran to take different forms of actions against countries that are responsible for conducting atrocity against shia. Pakistan is another neighbor of Iran who has nuclear weapon and does outrages to shia especially in Baluchistan province. If Iran become nuclear powerful and interfere in Pakistan, there will perhaps occur nuclear War because Pakistan is more prone to use nuclear weapon. So conditions may be worst for Iranian gain of nuclear weapon. But on the contrary it may create balance and peace by counter threatening and subjugating Israel. Besides Turkey, one of the major powerful states in Middle East, once was a foe of Iran but turned it as a friend which will be convenient to Iran to handle the regional peace. After that the countries that are ingratiating to US and make plot for deposing Islamic govt. and instruction from Iran, will retract them from such act. They will also respect Iran and shia within or outside their state that may instate tranquility and security.
The historic covenant refers to significance of P5+1 and Iran. P5+1 show that it can be soften and negotiate without using military power when the counter state becomes malleable. The pact also indicates that within the stress of economic and trade embargo, any state is to retreat from its illicit deeds. But opposite pages are also divulged by the treaty that denial and blockade is not a solution to a country when it seeks for nuclear weapon rather P5+1 have to arrange convincible meeting with geographically and strategically momentum state like Iran. A new truth is blunted to us that is the decline of USA’s power as hyper power. For that reason it had to sit down on negotiating table irritating Israel. However the pact has done good to Iran, Middle East and USA.
Now USA and its allies need to facilitate Iran to carry out the tasks and rules imposed on it. Besides Iran should treat the treaty very strategically so that no one can identify it as obstinate and peace breaker. Now another important responsibility is of Israel. It has to understand the reality otherwise Iran may be enough to tackle it in near future.