Power Shift in Afghanistan will influence the Regional Politics in Asia -Md. Akij Mahmud

US President Joe Biden announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan despite India’s objections. The region’s geopolitics has been hot since the announcement of the withdrawal. China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan; These five countries want to side with Afghanistan in protecting their interests. The aspiring anti-American countries have become one in the alliance. Their goal is to reduce US acceptance. The fragrance of the Taliban’s victory is opening up new avenues of possibility in the anti-US camp. At the same time, there is a growing tendency for regional conflict in the region. In the name of restoring peace, the United States has kept the flames of war burning in Afghanistan for 20 years. Millions of lives have been lost to the horrors of war as Biden seeks to withdraw America from Afghanistan in a bid to correct two decades of mistakes. The United States has decided to leave the country to hide its bloody hand in the war in Afghanistan. That decision has dealt a severe blow to America’s foreign policy. It has questioned the diplomatic activities of the Modi government. Neighboring and global powers are engaged in a kind of diplomatic war to influence Afghanistan. As a result, Afghanistan’s name has become unique in regional politics as well as in world politics.

After the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, India’s profits have increased. Since 2003, the United States has given allied India the opportunity to lead Afghanistan in the areas of infrastructure development, economic prosperity and culture. Since then, India’s huge investment and presence in Afghanistan has been observed. But if the Taliban come to lead Afghanistan, India’s path in Afghanistan could be blocked. Huge investments can lead to uncertainty. India’s current leadership could be hit hard by the strategic politics of regional hegemony. On the other hand, the patient diplomacy of China and Pakistan can see the face of success. In short, if the Taliban gains power in Afghanistan, India will be cornered in regional politics.
For influence and internal stability in the geopolitics of Central and South Asia, the importance of Afghanistan to India is essential. India has a close relationship with the Ashraf Ghani government. The Kabul government has repeatedly sought India’s cooperation in surviving the Taliban. But the Taliban leadership, which has almost taken control of Afghanistan, is worried about the Indian leadership. The success of the Taliban is putting the Indian Foreign Office to a test.

India has been in Afghanistan since 2003. India has invested more than 300 crore dollars in various sectors. Besides, India had six missions on the Pak-Afghan border. These missions could have put pressure on Pakistan as well. But Indian missions have been paralyzed by the Taliban’s one-by-one control over Afghanistan’s entire land border. The rise of separatist terrorists in Afghanistan is alarming enough for India. The rise of the Taliban could add fuel to tensions in Indian-controlled Kashmir. The situation in Kashmir could lead to extreme instability in the wake of separatist terrorists. The Taliban leadership has already stated that it will not allow Afghan land to be used against Pakistan. They also warned not to indulge in any foreign power on Afghan soil. Therefore, it is understood that the situation in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly complicated for India.

There have been recent indications that the Taliban’s relations with China and Turkey have improved in various ways. Meanwhile, Taliban leaders have visited China. The East Turkestan Islamic movement is on the rise, which China sees as a threat to its own interests. Interestingly, China has sought the cooperation of the Taliban to thwart this movement in Turkestan. On the other hand, despite Turkey’s NATO involvement, the Taliban have promised to develop relations with them. According to experts, Pakistan has been instrumental in establishing the Taliban’s good relations with China-Afghanistan-Turkey. However, the inexperienced leadership of the Taliban is cleverly moving forward to build the future of Afghanistan, as evidenced by their diplomatic efforts.
Pak-Afghan relations were the best from 1996 to 2001. That time, the Taliban were in control of Afghanistan. The current pro-American Afghan government is much more dependent on India. The Pakistan hostility of the Kabul government is terrorizing Pakistan in many ways. The Pakistani leadership is well aware that the government in Afghanistan is very important in suppressing the insurgency in Balochistan and protecting the integrity of Pakistan. That is why the Kabul government’s pro-India attitude is seen as a major threat to Pakistan’s security.
The Taliban were unhappy with China for torturing the Uighur community. But through Pakistan’s mediation, China has been able to convince the Taliban that China must be by their side to build a new country. The Taliban’s leadership is needed to link China’s proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or Silk Road with Pakistan to Afghanistan. With the Afghan border with Iran, China’s dream of a Silk Road could easily cross its territory into the Arabian Desert. All in all, this turning point in Afghanistan has created a stir in global politics where America’s opponents are going to achieve diplomatic success. The anti-American coalition has grown stronger in Afghanistan. Experts say the alliance will be even more active in the future than the anti-China Quad. This is because the alliance has a moral basis for organizing, in the same way that it is protecting the interests of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan’s politics have been volatile since the 2001 US-led invasion of al-Qaeda. The United States has been embroiled in a long-running war against terror citing Taliban collusion. America’s 20-year campaign to eradicate terrorism is questionable today.

In 1969, the dream of the then Soviets to conquer Afghanistan was shattered. The reason behind this was Americans’ involvement. In the twenty-first century, when the United States has to fight more rivals, the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan is seen as a loss to its rival nations. In 1969, for the guerrilla Mujahideens consistency attack the Soviet troops retreated. The current Taliban is thought to be their successor. While the US withdrawal is a relief for Russia, the Taliban regime is seen as a threat to them. The Taliban have previous disputes with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which border Afghanistan. The countries’ internal turmoil and the rise of the Taliban leadership could complicate Russia’s border situation. Therefore, the present and future of Afghanistan is very important for Russia. But another US defeat on the Afghan battlefield has had a massive positive response in the domestic politics of countries like Russia, China and Iran as they can campaign against their rival USA.

The Taliban’s success is due to their tactics. The influence of Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban movement, is still present among the Taliban. The spiritual leader said before his death in 2014 that foreign occupation of Afghanistan would end within two decades of their loss of power. After that, the fate of Afghanistan will be in the hands of Afghans for a hundred years. Mollah Omar’s preconceived notions are coming true. As a result, his popularity continues to inspire the Taliban even after his death. Mullah Omar is one of the reasons of Taliban unity.
The current situation in Afghanistan is in favor of the Taliban. Relying on the Taliban leadership, anti-American countries are uniting in the region. Pakistan’s long diplomatic activities are going to see the light of day. America and its allies face another challenge in world politics. In hindsight, it looks like the US will change its strategy on the Afghanistan issue. However, the Taliban will not accept any breach of the US promise to return to Afghanistan. Iran, Pakistan and China will indirectly support them. India will continue its efforts till the end to keep America involved at any cost.
It is difficult to say about the future of politics where interest is the last word in international politics. In determining the future of Afghanistan and maintaining its position in this conflicting politics of interests, the Taliban leadership must overcome a thorny and difficult path. Will the Taliban be able to cross that path and establish a country of future peace? Or conflict, revenge, greed for power will stain their hands with blood

The author regularly writes on national and
international politics.