Compared to other parts of India, the political situation in West Bengal has always been a matter of curiosity for the people of Bangladesh. The reason is not unknown to anyone. The same blood of Bengali nationality flows in the veins of both the people of Bengal. The two Bengalis are constantly struggling to make Bengal a golden Bengal.
Over time, the political parties have made this weakness one of the tools of politics towards building a golden Bengal for the Bengalis. The promise to build a golden Bengal centered on the West Bengal assembly elections is therefore nothing new to Bengalis. But conscious citizens are watching as usual to be aware of the promises made by the parties participating in the forthcoming Assembly elections in West Bengal and the techniques to implement them.
The Trinamool Congress has been leading in West Bengal for the last 10 years with a single popularity, twisting the political power of the Left Front which has been in power for 34 years. But the BJP’s (Bharatiya Janata Party) unimaginable success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections has challenged the single popularity of the Trinamool Congress. In the Modi-Amit magic, the BJP won 18 of the 42 seats in West Bengal in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This unimaginable success of the BJP in West Bengal, which was built on Hindutva, has given them hope in the West Bengal leadership. That is why Modi and Amit have repeatedly rushed from Delhi to the politics of West Bengal in the run-up to the elections. Mamata is not far behind,
Experts believe that Modi-Amit’s BGP has been able to understand the sentiments of the people of West Bengal despite adopting communal political tactics. And that is why in this election in West Bengal, they are questioning the Trinamool Congress, which came to power 10 years ago with the dream of a golden Bengal. During the Trinamool Congress rule, instead of developing the people of West Bengal, only the pockets of people close to Mamata are being filled, this is what the big BJP leaders are saying in the election campaign. The BJP wants to attract the people of the region by further promising the same strategy of building ‘Lakshya Sonar Bangla’, while the general leaders and workers of the party are spreading Modi’s word ‘My V Chowkidar’ among the common people. In this situation, we have to wait till May 2 to know whether the two main rivals to build Sonar Bangla or any other party will lead the West Bengal Legislative Assembly.
A survey by ABP Anand, a C-voter in January this year, indicated that the Trinamool had a single majority. There were 154 to 162 possible grassroots seats. The BJP had 96 to 106. The Left-Congress alliance was said to have 26 to 34 seats. In the space of one month, there are many differences in the opinion polls. ABP Anand and CNX conducted a poll in West Bengal between January 23 and February 8 to find out which party could lead the West Bengal Assembly in the upcoming elections. They spoke to 6,980 men and women. According to the results of the survey, the Trinamool could win 146 to 157 seats. But to form a government with a single majority, at least 147 seats are needed. According to the survey, the BJP could win 113 to 121 seats; The potential seats in the Left-Congress alliance could be 20 to 26. A review of the poll shows that, The Trinamool Congress will have to gain a lot of momentum to lead with a single majority in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. Standing on the doorstep of the election, the Trinamool Congress has split. Since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Indian media has been abuzz with reports of many bigwigs, starting from the ground level, turning to the BJP. In the run-up to the elections, the Trinamool Congress is going to face a much bigger challenge in the forthcoming Assembly elections with the ex-party leaders and activists, the unity of the Left-Congress and the BJP’s past communal poison.
West Bengal’s Muslim vote bank is one of the tools to win the election. Past elections have shown that the Muslim vote in the state is largely in the hands of the Trinamool Congress, but this time the situation is a little different. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it has been seen that even in the entire Muslim inhabited village, votes have been cast in Padmaphule. A part of the Muslim vote is likely to go to the Congress-CPM alliance. Not only that, the BJP is keeping a close eye on the votes of 30 per cent Muslim voters in the state. The BJP is very cautious in its strategy to divide the Muslim vote bank of the Trinamool Congress. Some of this can be gauged from the BJP’s election campaign, which a few days ago sidelined Siraj Khan, a former member of the Midnapore Zilla Parishad, who had left the Trinamool Congress and sided with him. They sit side by side.’
However, the BJP realized in the last assembly elections that the regional politics of West Bengal is a little different. Moreover, the riots in Delhi and the amendment of Muslim religious laws have significantly affected the Muslim vote bank in the region, which has benefited the Trinamool Congress. The recent peasant revolt in India and the brutal treatment of farmers are also creating a negative image of the BJP in the minds of farmers in the region. And it will not be possible for the BJP at this moment to sway this huge peasantry even through communal conflict. Besides, various failures of Modi government are also coming in front of the common people of India lately. Many of Modi’s coronation speeches and decisions have caused outrage among the youth. However, the BJP is relieved that the farmers of West Bengal did not take part in the recent peasant movement in India, otherwise the BJP’s dream of an election in Bengal would have faded.
Mamata Banerjee has implemented some significant projects for the development of West Bengal and has taken many new steps to improve the living standards of the people of the region. Many people are talking about non-cooperation of the central government in public. Mamata Banerjee’s election campaign says that the BJP is not only spreading Hindu-Muslim hatred, but is also creating divisions among Hindus. In this way, he is able to draw a message to the people in the same way that he is able to draw the attention of the Muslims to the caste differences.
Although the Amit-Modi duo wanted to woo Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress in the West Bengal elections, Mamata Banerjee’s long political struggles and philosophy still make her unique as a popular face in West Bengal. The fact that he is still the place of trust of the people of West Bengal in the implementation of his promise to build a golden Bengal has come to light in the opinion polls of ‘C Voter’ According to the C-Voter poll, the current Chief Minister and Trinamool Supremo is still at the top in terms of popularity as a Chief Ministerial candidate. According to the survey, 55 percent people like Mamata Banerjee. BJP state president Dilip Ghosh is in second place, with 25 per cent people liking him. Mukul Roy is preferred by 9 per cent, Sujan Chakraborty by 3 per cent, Adhir Chowdhury by 2 per cent and others by 6 per cent.
According to opinion polls, the overall situation in India and West Bengal, it is clear that Mamata Banerjee will win the forthcoming Assembly elections. However, the growing popularity of the BJP and the rise of the BJP in West Bengal could pave the way for the Trinamool Congress to take power at the doorstep of the Left-Congress alliance. In that case, we can see the two rival parties standing in the same row and leading the West Bengal Legislative Assembly in unison, which is not a rare event in the politics of the subcontinent.
The author of this article is Studying at the University of Chittagong